There has been a lot of recent discussions about Russia and Ukraine. Putin is at it yet again, and as usual, the West is being predictably meek in return. But will Russia take the next step and actually invade Ukraine? It seems doubtful considering how comparatively ‘measured’ Putin has been since 2008. He has favoured backroom deals and the use of proxies when force is required, and he learned the hard way the cost of strategic miscalculation in Chechnya. Most likely, Putin is trying to win concessions from the West, the tacit acceptance of a Russian ‘sphere of influence’. It appears he is playing a dangerous game but is he?

I want to say that one day the West will wake up and do more to defend democracies from authoritarian regimes but, any parallels between today and the policy of Hitlerian appeasement are slim at best. Ukraine is not Poland, and this is not 1939. England and France declared war because they knew Hitler would inevitably invade western Europe. It was in their self-interest, and a matter of survival but we’re not anywhere close to that with Russia.

At this stage, it appears Putin’s strategy is to wipe away the stain left by the collapse of the Soviet Union, to recover what was lost and give Russia the means to be a truly global player again. And as long as he doesn’t threaten NATO members, I do not see the West reacting beyond more words and sanctions, but this will only embolden Putin, as it did Hitler. The only way to defeat a bully is to stand up to him, even at the risk of a black eye or bloody nose.

The spectre of nuclear weapons is probably a core reason for Western timidity. The fear that any conventional war will not end that way is ever-present, but I do not necessarily believe that is the case. If we end up in a shooting war with China or Russia, as long as we don’t threaten their survival, I believe they will show restraint. So as long as we didn’t invade Russia in some attempt at regime change, a conventional war should remain that. But then you run the risk of engaging in an open-ended conflict with no clear goal save for removing Russia from Ukrainian soil and the establishment of a stable democratic government. Boy have we been on that merry-go-round before with the same results.

I am not advocating war with Russia, but at what point do we stop paying lip service to democracy and human rights and do something meaningful? I understand the potential costs are high. Most people are not interested in the blood and treasure required to save Ukraine from the Russian boot, but if we had spent some treasure on Ukraine years ago, we would not be in this situation now. Ukraine would have been better prepared to repel Russian advances in Crimea and the Donbas. The less we do today, the more will be required tomorrow, so why waste time in the vain hope that Putin will suddenly wake up and decide to be Mr Democracy?

We cannot gamble on waiting Putin out in the hopes that his successor will be any better. The demise of Putin is unlikely to lead to some kind of democratic reawakening for those in power. No, they will support whoever will secure and grow their fortunes. The best time to support Ukraine was in 2014; the second-best time is now.

Featured image courtesy of Mstyslav Chernov.